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22-May-2016

UAE banks: Limitless reaches deal with creditors, will make early payment of AED1.9bn to banks

What’s new: Bloomberg reported that Limitless, a Dubai owned property developer, will make an early payment of AED1.9bn to banks (43% of outstanding loan) after reaching a second debt restructuring agreement. Under the terms of the agreement Limitless is required to pay outstanding debt of AED4.45bn in three installments in December 2016, 2017 and 2018. The early payment will take care of the 2016 installment and 80% of the second one. Limitless sold land in Saudi Arabia last year, but was withholding payments to banks until the restructuring terms were finalised. The restructuring process was being stalled by certain dissenting creditors, which have now either completely sold or reduced their share of Limitless’ debt.  Emirates NBD, NBAD, DIB, Mashreqbank and Saudi Arabia’s Arab National Bank (ANB) are part of the creditor committee dealing with the Dubai GRE and are likely to benefit from this deal.   Our view: The repayment from Limitless should reduce provisioning for UAE banks in 2Q16. NBAD’s head of risk had stated in 1Q16 results conference call that he expects provisioning level to ease off in 2Q in part due to reversal of provisions on a Dubai GRE. We are also likely to see a reduction in NPL ratios as i) part of the loan is repaid and ii) the outstanding amount is upgraded to performing status. Emirates NBD fast-tracked the reclassification of Dubai World (DW) to performing status (upgraded in 4Q14) once DW started making early payments.   Investment perspective: We have a Buy rating on ENBD and a Neutral rating on NBAD, DIB and ANB.     Emirates NBD: AED8.15 as of 19 May 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: AED10.00/share, MCap: USD12,342 mn, EMIRATES UH / ENBD.DU

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