Riyad 1Q2016 first glance: Revenue weakness cushioned by lower provisions, land sale gains
Riyad Bank reported 1Q2016 net income of SAR1,174 million. Recurring earnings of SAR973 million, adjusting for SAR201 million capital gain on land sales, were 14% higher Q-o-Q, ahead of our forecast of SAR833 million. Main positives: i) Low provisions (est. cost of risk of 22bps); ii) Loan growth (+5.5% Q-o-Q); iii) Capital gain on land sale of SAR201 million Main negatives: i) Weaker spreads (-21bps Q-o-Q); ii) Decline in deposits (-1% Q-o-Q); iii) Weak recurring non-interest income (-8% Q-o-Q) Our take on the results: Pre-provision earnings were broadly in line with our estimates. As expected, spreads weakened from high base in 4Q2015, likely dented by higher funding costs despite decline in deposits. Non-interest income ex-capital gains weakened further, despite strong loan growth, suggesting weaker investment income. We estimate annualised cost of risk of only 22bps, which -along with capital gain on land sales- cushioned weaker revenue growth. However, loan growth was strong at 5.5% Q-o-Q. However, this pushed up the bank’s LDR (adjusted for LT loans) to 88%. This could translate into sustained pressure on funding costs. (Earnings release, Murad Ansari) Riyad Bank: SAR11.10 as of 13 April 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: SAR14.00 per share, MCap: USD8,880 million, RIBL AB / 1010.SE
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