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English news

24-Jan-2016

Mobily 4Q2015: Earnings beat estimates, turning positive for the first time since 3Q2014 on stronger-than-expected margins; top-line weakens sequentially due to seasonality

Revenue – SAR3,488 million, +28% Y-o-Y, -c5% Q-o-Q, -c6% versus EFGe EBITDA margin – 32%, versus -36% in 4Q2014, +9.6pp Q-o-Q, +7.6pp versus EFGe Net profit – SAR11 million, versus net loss of SAR2,108 million in 4Q2014 and a net loss of SAR158 million in 3Q2015, versus EFGe of a net loss of SAR83 million   Mobily released its 4Q2015 preliminary highlights, with earnings coming in positive for the first time since 3Q2014 and beating our estimate of a loss of SAR83 million. This is despite revenues falling short of our estimate by 6%. The beat came mainly on the back of i) a stronger-than-expected gross profit margin due to lower mobile termination rates (MTR); and ii) stronger-than-expected EBITDA margin, possibly on cost optimisation initiatives. The recently-appointed management team seems to be achieving one of the two key objectives, which is cost optimisation. Much like last quarter, Mobily and Zain KSA have witnessed expansions in the GPM and seem to be the main beneficiaries to the MTR cuts imposed in November, 2014, as opposed to STC. Revenues, on the other hand, fell short of our estimate by 6%, but still grew 28% Y-o-Y. It is not clear in the release what drove the annual growth in revenues. However, we expect the sequential decline (-5%) to be the result of a high 3Q2015 due to seasonality as the pilgrimage season fell in the quarter. In terms of operational profitability, Mobily has shown impressive improvements. GPM reached 61%, the highest since 3Q2013 and beating our forecast of 56%. EBITDA margin scored 32% also beating our forecast of 24%. During the quarter, the company’s management was successful in signing an agreement with the majority of its lenders to waive the breach of covenant totaling SAR12.1 billion. However, the company is still in discussions with the other creditors for ECA (export credit agencies) facilities and certain other bilateral facilities, in order to conclude a similar waiver for their relevant facilities. We have communicated previously that in order for the stock to rerate, the company has to deleverage its balance sheet and a potential tower sale would accelerate the process, freeing up some liquidity. (Earnings release, Omar Maher, Karim Riad)  

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