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19-Jan-2016

Heliopolis Housing 2Q2015/16: Robust reported figures, likely on considerable land sale transaction(s)

Heliopolis Housing reported its headline figures for the three-month period ending in December 2015. Below are the main highlights:   Revenue jumped by four-fold Y-o-Y to reach EGP322.6 million, well ahead of our estimate of EGP118.2 million, which we attribute to a likely sale of large land plots. This brings 1H2015/16 revenue to EGP418.5 million, up 86.5% Y-o-Y Gross profit significantly grew to reach EGP287.8 million, versus EGP30.2 million in the corresponding quarter of last year. This brings 1H2015/16 gross profit to EGP354.7 million, up 146.8% Y-o-Y   This translates into a gross profit margin of 89.2% versus 38.1% a year ago, which supports our view that the driver for the strong reported figures was a considerable transaction(s) of land sales. 1H2015/16 gross profit margin is 84.8% up from 64.1% a year ago    Net income after tax reached EGP206.9 million, versus a net loss of EGP1.9 million in the corresponding quarter of last year. This comes well ahead of our estimate of EGP48.2 million, bringing 1H2015/16 net income to EGP258.2 million, up 189.2% Y-o-Y      We reiterate our Buy rating on the name, which offers a very wide upside to our FV of EGP73.10/share, despite the heavy 70% discount applied to our NAV. We note that the value comes from the company’s large well-located land bank, which is undisputed and carry zero land liabilities.   We identify the following as possible triggers for the stock: More progress at company’s 655-feddan land plot in New Heliopolis, which was awarded to SODIC     Further announcements of more co-development plans with third-party developers Announcements of government land auctions in the East of Cairo, at higher prices; and Evidence of a faster track for the planned change in business model, showing a bias towards off-plan sales, and thus a faster and better potential for land monetisation   We shall provide more details on the results beat, once the full statements are available and/or once we manage to get feedback from management. (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros)   Heliopolis Housing: EGP42.73 as of 18 January 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP73.15 per share, MCap: USD607 million, HELI EY / HELI.CA  

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