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13-Jun-2016

GTH files request for arbitration against Canadian government on sale of WIND Canada

The News: GTH filed a request for arbitration against the Canadian government with respect to the actions taken by the latter regarding GTH’s investment in Globalive Wireless Management Corp. (WIND Canada). According to GTH, the company was forced to sell its 65.4% indirect equity interest in WIND Canada and its 33.2% voting rights at a significantly distressed price in September 2014, causing a loss to GTH. The company is also claiming that since 2008, its rights under the bilateral agreement signed between the Canadian Government and the Egyptian Government, whereby both countries shall encourage and protect investors of the other country within its territory, have been violated.   Our view: We had stopped taking the Canadian investment into account in our SOTP valuation following the impairment and sale of the asset; hence, any potential gains or compensation from the arbitration would constitute upside to our FV and earnings estimate. However, we will continue not to account for any potential gains given that: i) we have no visibility on the potential outcome of the arbitration; and ii) we have no details regarding the size of the claim made by GTH. We believe the risks for GTH in this arbitration are mostly to the upside, with the only downside being the legal fees (likely negligible) in the event it loses the arbitration. We reiterate our Buy rating on the stock. (company, Omar Maher, Karim Riad)   Global Telecom Holding: USD1.75 per GDR / EGP3.15/share as of 9 June 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: USD2.93 per GDR / EGP5.20 per share, MCap: USD1,836mn, GLTD LI / GLTDQ.L

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