01-Feb-2017
EMG 4Q16: Revenue growth slows but margins remain strong
Revenue – AED835mn, +1.7% Y-o-Y, +7.9% Q-o-Q, -3.8% vs. EFGe EBITDA – AED502mn, +2.9% Y-o-Y, +4.3% Q-o-Q, -5.8% vs. EFGe Net income – AED452mn, -0.3% Y-o-Y, +3.9% Q-o-Q, -4.0% vs. EFGe Emaar Malls Group (EMG) has reported its 4Q16 headline figures. The slowdown Y-o-Y revenue growth is the main highlight for the quarter and the only disappointment. EBITDA margins continued to be strong averaging 72.7% in quarter. Tenant sales numbers are not released, but we expect the weakness in tenant sales seen since 4Q15 to have continued. Footfall for TDM was 80mn in 2016, unchanged since 2014, while that of the EMG malls was 125mn in 2016 (2015: 124mn, 2014: 114mn). Apart from the Dubai Mall’s Fashion Avenue which is set to start operations before the end of 1H17, management has listed additional space at Dubai Creek Harbour and Dubai Hills Estate, as well as additional space at the Springs Village. We see 22.3% upside potential to our TP of AED3.13/share. The stock is trading at a PER multiple at 15.1x in 2017e and EV/EBITDA of 13.5x for the same year. Key positives: Revenue came roughly in line with our estimate, coming in at AED835mn (+1.7% Y-o-Y, +7.9% Q-o-Q, -3.8% vs. EFGe). 2016 revenue totalled AED3.2bn (+7.8% Y-o-Y); ii) EBITDA margin continue to be resilient, of 72.7% in 4Q16 (4Q15: 73.8%, 3Q16: 72.5%) and 73.9% in 2016 (2015: 72.9%); iii) Net income met our estimate, with a slight miss (-4.0%), coming in at EGP452.0mn (-0.3% Y-o-Y, +3.9% Q-o-Q). 2016 net income totaled EGP1.87bn (+13.1% Y-o-Y); iv) Occupancy rates continue to be strong, averaging 96% for Dubai Mall Key negative: Weakest Y-o-Y revenue growth since 1Q15; which might be a result of lower percentage of lease contracts that are due for renewal during the period compared to the previous quarters. (Company, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros) EMG (DU): AED2.53 as of 31 Jan, Rating: Buy, TP: AED3.13/share, MCap: USD9,078mn, EMAARMLS UH / EMAA.DU