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08-Nov-2016

Emaar Misr 3Q16: Operational metrics undisclosed; net income beat on higher interest income   

Revenue – EGP719bn, +22% Y-o-Y, -39% Q-o-Q, -10% vs. EFGe Gross profit – EGP346mn, +55% Y-o-Y, -20% Q-o-Q   Net profit – EGP372mn, +67% Y-o-Y, -15% Q-o-Q, +17% vs. EFGe   Emaar Misr reported its financial results for 3Q16. Revenue came in at EGP719mn, up 22% Y-o-Y, but 10% shy of our expected EGP800mn. Gross profit margin was strong (48.1%) close to the company’s quarterly record high (48.3%). The margin expansion was driven by improved margins for deliveries in Marassi, which compensated for the revenue shortfall. Net income came in at EGP372mn, coming in with a 17% beat to our expected EGP319mn, which is attributed to higher-than-expected interest income, making it a weak-quality beat. Operational metrics for the quarter were not released, while Emaar Properties results are yet to be disclosed, which keeps us in the dark with regard to all operational indicators, including contracted sales. We had expected contracted sales numbers to be relatively strong, on seasonality, driven by sales at Marassi, which may have (at least partially) compensated for a weak 1H16 (-33% Y-o-Y on an estimated EGP2.6bn). North coast sales in 3Q16 (only PHD and Porto Group are disclosed to date) have proven to be strong.             Key positives Strong gross profit margin, averaging 48.1% (+10.1pps Y-o-Y, +11.7pps Q-o-Q), driven by improved margins in Marrasi’s deliveries to 58.6% (3Q15: 43.5%, 2Q16: 37.0%), while gross profit margins for units in UTC and Mivida were stable (UTC: 3Q16: 32.2%, 3Q15: 34.8%, 2Q16: 33.8%; Mivida: 3Q16: 37.5%, 3Q15: 31.8%, 2Q16: 37.7%) Net income beat estimate by +16.7%, coming in at EGP372.1mn (+67.4% Y-o-Y, -14.8% Q-o-Q). 9M16 net income was EGP1.1bn (+42.8% Y-o-Y), with the beat coming mainly from higher-than-expected interest income (EGP147.4mn, +71.5% Y-o-Y, +21.4% Q-o-Q) Emaar Misr holds a net cash position of EGP2.6bn (+1.7% Q-o-Q), which will likely trigger higher interest income in the future, following the CBE’s decision to raise policy rates by 300bps last week   Key negative Weaker-than-expected revenue, coming in at EGP719mn (+22.2% Y-o-Y, -39.2% Q-o-Q, -10.1% vs. EFGe). 9M16 revenue totaled EGP2.5bn (+16.3% Y-o-Y). (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros)   Emaar Misr: EGP2.47 as of 07 November 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP3.74 per share, MCap: USD678mn, EMFD EY / EMFD.CA

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