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03-May-2016

Ebb & Flow – Five possible deletions from Kuwait & Oman within MSCI FM 100 index ; cUSD6.8mn outflows

We have looked at the current MSCI FM 100 index (passively tracked by USD430mn) constituents that are listed in MENA, and we tested for liquidity to anticipate any potential deletions ahead of the May review.   We found that OCAI OM and RCCI OM are deletion candidates out of Oman, with expected outflows of cUSD1.8mn and cUSD1mn respectively. We note that in the case of OCAI our calculations show that 12-ATVR is only 7bps below requirements for existing constituents, however given that MSCI does not round up ATVR, deletion is likely.                                                                                                                In Kuwait, KIB KK, ALTIJARIA KK, and ALAFCO KK are deletion candidates in our view. While these names do not fail MSCI FM 100 index liquidity requirements, they fail those of MSCI Kuwait IMI, which are higher. We expect cUSD1.6mn outflows from KIB KK, cUSD1.5mn outflows from ALTIJARIA KK, and cUSD0.9mn from ALAFCO KK. We note that in the case of KIB our calculations show that the 12-month ATVR is only 12bps below requirements for existing constituents of MSCI Kuwait IMI, however given that MSCI does not round up ATVRs, we believe deletion is likely.  (Mohamad Al AHajj)

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