Almarai [2280.SE] reported its 3Q16 headline numbers, with earnings +10% Y-o-Y and 15% above our estimate, mainly on higher margins and some below-the-line items. Revenue growth was at a historic low of 2.5% Y-o-Y (-9% vs. EFGe), as dairy & juice revenue was flattish (+1%), while poultry top-line dropped 9% Y-o-Y. Bakery was, again, the star performer, with revenue +17% Y-o-Y. Gross margin improved 2.1pp Y-o-Y (+2.6pp vs. EFGe) despite a surge in electricity and transportation costs due to lower input costs and some efficiencies. Accordingly, gross profit advanced 8% Y-o-Y and was broadly in line with our estimate (-3%). SG&A costs growth was tame at 6% Y-o-Y (-10% Y-o-Y) as G&A costs were flattish leading to operating profit growth of 9% Y-o-Y (+6% vs. EFGe). EBIT margin was thus up 1.3pp Y-o-Y (+3pp vs. EFGe). (Company disclosure, Hatem Alaa, Nada Amin) Almarai: SAR54.16 as of 06 October 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: SAR48.75 per share, MCap: USD11,554mn, ALMARAI AB / 2280.SE
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