19-Jan-2017
Zain KSA 4Q16 first glance: net loss better than expected on revenue beat and lower financing costs
Revenue – cSAR1,801mn, +8% Y-o-Y, +10% Q-o-Q, +9% vs. EFGe EBITDA margin – 27%, +3.0pp Y-o-Y, -2.6pp Q-o-Q, +0.2pp vs. EFGe Net loss – SAR135mn, -54% Y-o-Y, -49% Q-o-Q, -30% vs. EFGe Zain KSA released its 4Q16 results, showing a net loss of SAR135mn, down significantly by 54% Y-o-Y and 49% Q-o-Q, and better than our estimate of a net loss of SAR192mn. The beat was driven chiefly by: i) stronger-than-expected revenues (+9% vs. EFGe), despite challenging market conditions (including biometric verification); and ii) lower-than-expected net financing costs, despite an increasing interest rate environment in KSA. Moreover, Zain KSA was able to reduce the sum of its depreciation and amortisation charges by 17% Y-o-Y and 18% Q-o-Q as it benefited from the recently-announced 15-year mobile licence extension. Overall we believe this was a good set of results. The company is likely benefitting from higher traffic on its network due to the MTR cuts, in our view. However, we still believe that Zain KSA needs to become profitable at a faster pace, which does not seem likely in the short to medium term, even when accounting for lower amortisation charges, in order to stop the continuous erosion in shareholders’ equity. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. (Company disclosure, Omar Maher, Karim Riad) Zain KSA: SAR7.97 as of 18 January 2017, Rating: Neutral, TP: SAR6.56 per share, MCap: USD1,241mn, ZAINKSA AB / 7030.SE