20-Feb-2017
Zain Group 4Q16 earnings miss estimates as currencies depreciation hits revenues; BoD recommends KWD0.035/share
Revenue – KWD261mn, -8% Y-o-Y, -5% Q-o-Q, -5% vs. EFGe EBITDA margin – 46.7%, +1.9pp Y-o-Y, -3.1pp Q-o-Q, -1.8pp vs. EFGe Net Income – KWD32mn, -11% Y-o-Y, -25% Q-o-Q, -26% vs. EFGe Zain Group released its 4Q16 headline figures, showing earnings of KWD32mn, missing our estimate by 26%, on the back of lower-than-expected revenues in Sudan (-31% vs. EFGe), as a result of the SDG’s devaluation. Total revenue came in at KWD261mn (-5% vs. EFGe) as the company’s top-line was affected negatively, primarily due to weakening currencies in markets where Zain operates, predominantly Sudan, causing a KWD25mn drop in top-line in 4Q16 only, according to the company. Barring the impact of the SDG’s devaluation, group revenue would have been broadly in line with our estimate (+4% vs. EFGe), we calculate. EBITDA margin came short of our estimate at 46.7% (-1.8pp vs. EFGe), also on the back of the currency devaluation impact. Despite the disappointing set of numbers, dividends surprised positively at KWD0.035/share vs. our estimate of KWD0.030/share; we expect the dividend announcement to provide some support to the stock’s price, partially offsetting the weak results. The DPS implies an attractive yield of 7.1% and a pay-out ratio of 87.5%. Key highlights of Zain Group’s main operations : Kuwait: Despite a harsh competitive environment, revenues for the quarter stood at KWD80mn (+3% Y-o-Y ; +4% Q-o-Q), supported by strong data revenues which now accounts for 36% of total revenues Iraq: 4Q16 revenues were stable Y-o-Y (+0.7%) and rose significantly by 12% Q-o-Q, owing to the launch of 3.9G service The unit negotiated the settlement of KWD28.4mn (USD93mn), relating to Iraqna tax claim settlement; subsequently, the Iraqi government lifted the freeze on the unit’s bank accounts Sudan: FY16 revenues in local currency increased by 15% Y-o-Y to stand at SDG5.2bn, driven by strong data revenues. However, the SDG depreciated by 60% throughout 4Q16, impacting the unit’s top-line in KWD terms KSA: Extension of the mobile licence for 15 years Introduction of the biometric verification system in KSA in 2016 impacted the company’s subscriber base, which now stands at 10.7mn subscribers Jordan: 4Q16 revenue growth Y-o-Y was 4%, driven by strong data revenues as the company benefits from launching the 4G service. Zain Jordan’s data revenues now account for 34% of total revenues. (Company disclosure, Omar Maher, Karim Riad) Zain Group: KWD0.50 as of 19 Feb. 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: KWD0.49/share, MCap: USD7,132mn, ZAIN KK/ZAIN.KW