11-Jan-2017
Yansab 4Q16 first glance: Higher MEG prices not enough to offset increase in feedstock costs, as expected
Revenue – SAR1,849mn, +1% Y-o-Y, +7% Q-o-Q, -2% vs. EFGe Gross profit – SAR677mn, +26% Y-o-Y, -4% Q-o-Q, +1% vs. EFGe Operating income – SAR619mn, +29% Y-o-Y, -6% Q-o-Q, +1% vs. EFGe Net income – SAR603mn, +53% Y-o-Y, -1% Q-o-Q, +8% vs. EFGe Yansab reported its 4Q16 results, with operational numbers coming in line with our forecasts (gross profit +1% vs EFGe, EBIT +1% vs EFGe). On the bottom-line, earnings beat our forecasts by 8%, but were slightly lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations (-5% excluding EFGe). Despite a strong pick-up in MEG prices (+16% Q-o-Q), earnings fell Q-o-Q due to higher feedstock costs, driven by: i) Yansab’s grace period on ethane prices ended during the quarter, which would have led to an increase in ethane prices from USD0.75/mmBtu to USD1.75/mmBtu; and ii) propane prices – which also make up a large portion of Yansab’s feedstock – surged by 28% Q-o-Q on increased winter demand. Full financials are not yet available, but we believe the bottom-line beat was due mainly to higher-than-expected other income (largely interest income) given that EBIT was in line with our forecast, and the fact that it is unlikely that interest expenses or taxes saw such a massive decline. We see no major surprises in the results and reiterate our Buy call on Yansab, as we believe the name would be the largest beneficiary of the strong rebound witnessed in MEG prices (c45% of Yansab’s sales volume is MEG), and as we continue to see significant dividend potential for the company in the coming few years as its debt winds down completely by 2018/19 (since end of 2013, Yansab’s FCF has been able to support payments of cSAR5-6/share to debt and equity holders, much higher than the current dividend run rate of SAR3/share). (Earnings release, Yousef Husseini) YANSAB: SAR55.33 as of 10 January 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: SAR54.00 per share, MCap: USD8,300mn, YANSAB AB / 2290.SE