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19-Jan-2017

Shaker 4Q16 First glance: net losses on falling top-line, rising SG&A costs and weak LG Shaker performance; below estimate

Net loss: SAR29.9mn vs. SAR17.8mn in 4Q15 vs. a net profit of SAR2.4mn in 3Q16 vs. EFGe net profit of SAR2.9mn Revenue: SAR313mn, -17% Y-o-Y, -22% Q-o-Q, -17% vs. EFGe Gross profit: SAR69mn, +16% Y-o-Y, -26% Q-o-Q, -16% vs. EFGe   Shaker reported disappointing 4Q16 results with net losses of SAR29.9mn vs. SAR17.8mn a year ago and lower than our estimate of net income of SAR2.9mn on weak revenue and high SG&A costs. Results were also impacted by items below the EBIT line namely associate losses (mainly manufacturing arm LG Shaker) of cSAR5mn vs. a positive cSAR1mn a year ago (EFGe: cSAR3mn) and higher net interest costs of cSAR8mn (EFGe: cSAR5mn, net interest income of cSAR1mn a year ago).   Revenue was down for the fourth quarter in a row falling 17% Y-o-Y (-17% vs. EFGe) due to slowing consumption trends that affected sales of ACs and household durables.   Gross margin improved a strong c6.2pp Y-o-Y to 22.2% (EFGe: 21.9%) likely on lower purchase prices of appliances and ACs. Accordingly, gross profit was up 16% Y-o-Y (-16% vs. EFGe due to the weak revenue).   EBIT, however, was in the red at SAR19.6mn (lower than SAR22.2mn a year ago due to gross margin gains; EFGe: operating profit of SAR3.9mn) as SG&A costs rose 8% Y-o-Y (+13% vs. EFGe) reversing a flattish trend in 9M16 partly due to some non-recurring advisory and restructuring charges related to Shaker’s ongoing cost optimization programme.   Overall a weak results set that confirms our concerns on the name. We have a Neutral rating as we see large working capital risks as well as low revenue visibility, given slowing discretionary spending and a weak real estate market in KSA. (Company disclosure, Hatem Alaa, CFA, Nada S. Amin)   Shaker: SAR15.99 as of 18 Jan, Rating: Neutral, TP: SAR14.00 per share, MCap: USD269mn, SHAKER AB / 1214.SE  

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