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07-Nov-2016

Savola expects SAR171mn impact in 4Q16 from EGP floatation

Savola Group announced that its 4Q16 results will be affected negatively by SAR171mn as a result of last week’s EGP floatation – this represents a c18% hit to our 2016e earnings. The calculation was done using EGP/USD of 13 (c45% devaluation), so the impact will be higher if the EGP remains near current levels (c16) by quarter-close. We believe the impact largely reflects expected translation and FX losses (large net liability positions due to high imported working capital requirements).   Egypt represented c9% of Savola's 9M16 revenue, but has been loss-making since 2014 (9M16: cSAR168mn; 2015: SAR29mn). Savola has an edible oils business through Afia International (Egypt), two sugar companies (United Sugar Co. of Egypt and Alexandria Sugar) and two pasta companies (Al Maleka and Al Farasha). (Company disclosure, Hatem Alaa, Nada Amin)   Savola: SAR31.25 as of 06 November 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: SAR40.00 per share, MCap: USD4,450mn, SAVOLA AB / 2050.SE

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