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17-Oct-2016

Renaissance 3Q16 first glance: Weak operations leads to earnings miss

Renaissance Services (RNS) reported weaker-than-estimated results in 3Q16, with a net loss after minority interest of OMR3.6mn (vs. a net loss of OMR1.1mn in 3Q15, net loss of OMR1.9mn in 2Q16) that came in significantly below our net profit estimate of OMR0.3mn.   As operating profit slides further… The company reported operating profit of OMR7.7mn (-42% Y-o-Y, -14% Q-o-Q, -29% vs. EFGe). Revenue came in at OMR50.1mn during the quarter (-18% Y-o-Y, -2% Q-o-Q), 8% below EFG estimate. Even though segment-wise data for Marine and Contract segments are not yet available, we believe weaker vessel utilisation and historically low average vessel dayrates led to the operating miss.   Our view: Overall, a weak set of operational figures, but this was not a complete surprise to us, as we were expecting operational weakness at its both segments, albeit at a lower rate. We highlighted our concerns previously as we expected short-term challenges to overshadow its long-term potential due to the operational challenges in African and the Mena region, potential asset devaluation, dilution impact from MCB’s and a leveraged balance sheet. We had estimated a 12% decline in FY16 operational profit Y-o-Y, which will be further challenged by the weaker-than-estimated 3Q operational figures.   As expected, the stock price has retreated 24% over the last 3 months and trades near our FV. (Company, Sameer Kattiparambil, Tarek El-Shawarby)   Renaissance: OMR0.22 as of 16 October 2016, Rating: Sell, FV: OMR0.23 per share, MCap: USD161mn, RNSS OM / RSC.OM  

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