Ooredoo Kuwait 4Q2015 bottom line hit by FX, strong competition and one-offs; dividends a positive surprise
4Q15 Results Highlights: Revenue – KWD171mn, -7% Y-o-Y, -10% Q-o-Q, -8% vs. EFGe. EBITDA margin – 34.1%, +12.5pp Y-o-Y, -3.6pp Q-o-Q, -1.4pp vs. EFGe. Net loss – KWD1.4mn vs. net loss of KWD0.02mn in 4Q14, vs. net profit of KWD13.3mn in 3Q15, versus EFGe net profit of KWD15.6mn. Dividend – KWD0.100/share, +43% Y-o-Y, +43% vs. EFGe Ooredoo Kuwait released 4Q2015 headline figures with a net loss of KWD1.4 million, missing our estimate of a net profit of KWD15.6 million and down from a net profit of KWD13.3 million last quarter. The bottom line was impacted negatively by: i) adverse currency movements in Tunisia and Algeria; ii) weak macro-economic environment in Tunisia; iii) intense competitive environment in Algeria; iv) KWD9 million FX loss in Algeria; and v) a one-off KWD16.7 million impairment loss on investments in Tunisia. The main positive surprise was a significant jump in the 2015 dividend to KWD0.100/share, significantly above our estimate of KWD0.070/share, and implying a dividend yield of 9%. We believe this should lead to positive share price performance in the short to medium-term, and we reiterate our Buy rating as it trades at undemanding valuations with a 2016e EV/EBITDA of 3.4x versus an average of 5.1x for our MENA telecoms coverage. On the operating side, we note the ongoing improvement in the performance of the Kuwaiti unit, where revenue grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, up 15% Y-o-Y, and the EBITDA margin rose 5pp to 34%, above our estimate of 30%. We view this as a sign of a steady recovery in Kuwait following its restructuring and the modernisation of its network. Total revenue for the quarter was pressured chiefly by strong competition in Algeria and a challenging macro-economic environment in Tunisia. Moreover, the DZD and the TND depreciated 3% and 4% Q-o-Q, respectively. The group EBITDA margin was 34.1%, slightly below our estimate due to weakening margins in Algeria and Tunisia. Algeria’s margin fell to 33% from 41% last quarter, while Tunisia’s margin fell to 31% from 43%. The company has not provided further clarification regarding margin pressure; we will seek more details in the conference call of parent Ooredoo Group. (Omar Maher, company)
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