27-Apr-2016
Ooredoo Kuwait 1Q2016 earnings beat on non-operating items; Kuwait recovery on track
Revenue – KWD175 million, +1% Y-o-Y, +3% Q-o-Q, +3% versus EFGe EBITDA margin – 32.5%, -0.5pp Y-o-Y, +9.4pp Q-o-Q, -1.5pp versus EFGe Net Income – KWD10.2 million, +456% Y-o-Y, versus net loss of KWD1.4 million in 4Q15, +120% versus EFGe Ooredoo Kuwait released 1Q2016 headline figures, with net profit surprising positively at KWD10.2 million, up more than fourfold Y-o-Y, versus a net loss of KWD1.4 million last quarter and more than double our estimate of KWD4.6 million. This is despite revenue and EBITDA both being in line with our estimates. The reason for the earnings beat is not clear due to the absence of financial statements, but we believe it will have been caused by a non-operating item below EBITDA. We remain buyers of Ooredoo Kuwait as the stock is currently trading at a 2016e EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, implying a 42% discount to our MENA telecoms coverage. Operationally, Kuwait is still recovering at a steady rate, with revenue up for the sixth consecutive quarter (+13% Y-o-Y, +2 Q-o-Q), following the restructuring of the unit and modernisation of its network; however, this did not filter down to the operation’s EBITDA margin, which contracted by 1.7pp Y-o-Y and 13.9pp Q-o-Q. There are no details on the margin contraction, but we suspect it was the result of increased selling and marketing costs as the company continues to market aggressively for its latest generation of high-speed services. We do not expect low margins to be a recurring issue, as cost optimisation efforts will likely offset part of the increase in opex, going forward. In Algeria, revenue stabilised Q-o-Q, but was down 7% Y-o-Y despite the company’s efforts to capitalise on the first-mover advantage in 3G services; we see this as evidence of competition remaining intense in the market, especially that the DZD was largely stable during 1Q2016 and will have had no negative impact on the numbers. On a more positive note, EBITDA margin recovered Q-o-Q, which could imply some rationalisation of aggressive marketing strategies, in our view. In Tunisia, the worsening macro-economic situation and the depreciation of the TND continue to affect the operation. (Earnings release, Omar Maher, Karim Riad)