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17-Jan-2017

Omantel 4Q16 earnings miss on margin pressure, possibly due to one-offs

4Q16 results highlights: Revenue – OMR126mn, -4.3% Y-o-Y, -2.1% Q-o-Q, -4.3% vs. EFGe; EBITDA margin – 46.2%, +2.2pp Y-o-Y, -5.3pp Q-o-Q, -3.5pp vs. EFGe; Net income – OMR22mn, vs. a loss of OMR18mn in 4Q15, -23.6% Q-o-Q, -26.0% vs. EFGe.   Omantel’s 4Q16 earnings missed our estimate by a wide 26%, most likely on the back of: i) lower-than-expected revenue (-4.3% vs. EFGe); and ii) EBITDA margin pressure as the margin stood at 46.2% vs. our estimate of 49.7%. We suspect that the margin hit will have been caused by a possible one-off provision or a non-recurring operating cost. Top-line and margin pressure may also have been a result of increased competition between Omantel and Ooredoo Oman ahead of the entrance of the third operator, in our view. The full financials are yet to be released following the approval of the Board of Directors, which is expected to convene on 13 February 2017. We note that starting 1Q17, both operators will incur higher corporate tax (15% vs. 12% previously) and higher royalty rates (12% vs. 7% previously) which will add further pressure on the bottom line. (Karim Riad, Omar Maher)   Omantel: OMR1.46 as of 15 Jan, Rating: Neutral, TP: OMR1.39/share, MCap: USD2,882mn, OTEL OM / OTL.OM  

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