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12-Jan-2016

NBO 4Q15 first glance: Strong earnings but sluggish balance sheet growth

Earnings rose 14% Q-o-Q; ahead of estimates: NBO reported 4Q15 net income of OMR17.1 million for 4Q15, 14% higher Q-o-Q and 15% ahead of our estimates of OMR14.9 million. Revenues were strongly above our forecasts supported by an estimated 18bps Q-o-Q improvement in net interest spreads and 36% Q-o-Q growth in non-interest income. Operating costs jumped 12% Q-o-Q, but were easily absorbed by strong revenues.   Our view on the results:  Impressive set of earnings from NBO. Strong improvement in spreads was the key highlight of the results, in our view. Though non-interest income also surprised positively, the lack of balance sheet growth in 4Q15 leads us to believe that these could be due to one-offs. Balance sheet growth was unimpressive, with loan book flat Q-o-Q, while the bank shed deposits after raising OMR115 million through the Tier I bond issue in November 2015. We maintain our cautious view on 2016, and expect slower growth and pressure on spreads to dent earnings growth prospects. We remain Neutral on NBO. Main positives: i) Improvement in net interest spreads (+18bps Q-o-Q); ii) Non-interest income (+36% Q-o-Q); Main negatives: i) Flattish loan book (-0.1% Q-o-Q); ii) Decline in deposits (-6.1% Q-o-Q); iii) Higher operating costs (+12% Q-o-Q). (Company Disclosure, Murad Ansari)   National Bank of Oman: OMR0.27 as of 11 January 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: OMR0.32 per share, MCap: USD911 million, NBOB OM / NBO.OM

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