13-Feb-2017
Mezzan 4Q16: pick-up driven by own food brands, new catering contracts; beats EFGe
Revenue: KWD51.2mn, +13% Y-o-Y, +7% Q-o-Q, +3% vs. EFGe Gross profit: KWD13.7mn, +22% Y-o-Y, +5% Q-o-Q, +1% vs. EFGe Reported net profit: KWD4mn, +23% Y-o-Y, +3% Q-o-Q, +10% vs. EFGe Mezzan reported 4Q16 KPIs during its live webcast yesterday with headline net income of KWD4.0mn, growing 23% Y-o-Y mainly on better top-line growth from its core food manufacturing and distribution activities as well as catering and as margins improved on sales mix. Revenue rose a solid 13% Y-o-Y in 4Q16 (+3% versus EFGe) as food manufacturing and distribution (c54% of total) saw accelerated growth (up 12% Y-o-Y) propelled by the company’s own brands and contribution from the distribution of Danone baby formula (began sales in 2Q16). Other segments performed as follows: FMCG & pharmaceuticals (c17%) were down 3% Y-o-Y due to lower sales of health & beauty pharma products on slower discretionary spending as well as delays in tenders and price reductions in medicines by Kuwait’s Ministry of Health. Catering (c15%) saw strong 18% growth as anticipated, on new three-year contracts (KOC in mid-May, KNPC in August and Petrofac labor camp in September) that drove strong growth in 2H16 for the segment; Mezzan is looking to add more contracts. Services (c12%) +70% mainly on NATO contract in Afghanistan. Industrial (c4%) +26% reversing a decline over 9M16. By region: Kuwait (c65% of 2016 revenue) +4% Y-o-Y on higher food (boosted by Danone deal) and non-food sales that offset lower catering revenue. UAE (c17%) down 1% on lower discretionary spend but saw some sequential improvement. Qatar (c10%) +10% mainly on strong growth in both bottled water (full-year impact of added capacity) and catering. Jordan (c5%) +42% on new food tenders (“Services” segment) for the UN and WFP as well as the launch of a store in Azraq Camp. Saudi Arabia (c1%) mainly from acquisition of 70% of Al Safi Foods concluded in 3Q16. Gross margin widened c2pps (gross profit +22% Y-o-Y, broadly in line) on greater own-brand sales as well as catering revenue. Meanwhile, SG&A & other costs jumped 23% Y-o-Y mainly on costs associated with the KSA acquisition. Saudi operation (rebranded to Mezzan Food) performing in line with expectations with management reiterating its 4Q17 breakeven target. Plans for 2017 include a new factory as well as increasing product offering (already introduced KITCO chips from Sharjah plant) and ramping up utilisation. A new management team was appointed there since October 2016. The company has proposed a dividend distribution of KWD0.028/share (slightly below our KWD0.029 forecast), implying a dividend payout of c51% and yield of 2.9%. While management anticipates that there will be solid top-line growth in 2017e (full-year impact of KSA operation and new catering contracts), no earnings guidance was communicated due to lack of visibility on headwinds related to changing consumer (more focus on promotions) and government behavior (tender delays, sugar tax and VAT – most of their products likely to be exempt from the latter). Overall, a decent results set especially given the negative impact of losses at the KSA operation (first-consolidation in 3Q16). FY2016 earnings were flattish in 2016 at KWD17.2mn (excluding KWD2.2mn insurance claim in 2015) – had it not been for the negative impact of the Saudi acquisition, earnings growth would have been c7%. We have a Neutral rating partly as we expect KSA operation to be a drag on profitability in the short-term. (Company, Nada Amin, Hatem Alaa) Mezzan Holding: KWD0.95 as of 9 Feb, Rating: Neutral, TP: KWD1.18/share, MCap: USD986mn, MEZZAN KK/MEZZ.KW