Revenue – SAR2.37bn, -11% Y-o-Y, +2% Q-o-Q, +2% vs EFGe Gross profit – SAR498mn, -7% Y-o-Y, -2% Q-o-Q, +3% vs EFGe Recurring operating income* – SAR268mn, +48% Y-o-Y, -13% Q-o-Q, -7% vs EFGe Net Income – SAR16mn, vs loss of SAR6mn in 4Q15, -81% Q-o-Q, vs EFGe forecast of SAR28mn   Maaden just reported its 4Q16 results with bottom line earnings contracting substantially Q-o-Q, as expected, mainly on the back of significant weakness in the fertiliser division, in our view. Bottom line earnings missed our (SAR28mn) and consensus forecasts (SAR67.7mn ex-EFG), mainly on the back of an asset write-down of SAR43mn. As the company did not announce which operation the write down was related to, we are unable to calculate a recurring bottom line as we don’t know what sort of tax and minority adjustments took place, but we believe had it not been for the write-down, earnings would have been slightly higher than our forecast mainly on higher-than-expected investment income (50%-owned SAMAPCO) and other income.   On the operational level, there were no major surprises with earnings generally weaker Q-o-Q. Full financial breakdowns are not yet available, but we believe the phosphate operations may have been particularly weak on the back of the drop in ammonia (-33%) and DAP (-5%) prices, which would have offset the general improvement in volumes during the quarter (ammonia +35%, DAP +4%). We believe the surge in ammonia volumes was likely due to the start-up of the new ammonia plant, which while not yet commercial, could have provided some ammonia supply to the DAP plant, freeing up volumes for external sale from the already commercial ammonia plant.   In aluminium, trends were mixed as prices improved by 6% and the start-up of the alumina refinery and the bauxite mine should have reduced cash costs; however, on the negative side, volumes declined (-6%) and depreciation & interest expenses likely escalated substantially following the commercial start up the upstream assets. In gold, prices were also down (-9%), but this should have been largely offset by the 12% jump in volumes.   Overall, another relatively weak performance for Maaden though we largely expected it to be a difficult quarter in light of the depressed commodity price environment and higher depreciation and interest expenses (+27% Q-o-Q) following the commercial start of the upstream aluminium assets. The main positive takeaway from the results is that its EBITDA continues to grow (SAR967mn, +7% Q-o-Q. +31% Y-o-Y), implying that despite the challenging price environment, the company’s cash generation capabilities continue to grow.   The company’s BoD did not recommend dividend distribution for 2016, attributing the decision to the need to finance ongoing investments and the continuous slump in commodity prices. (Company, Tadawul, Yousef Husseini)   Maaden: SAR39.25 as of 19 Jan, Rating: Neutral, TP: SAR30.00/share, MCap: USD12,230mn, MAADEN AB / 1211.SE