Egypt’s November inflation numbers were just released, showing headline inflation decelerated to 15.7% in November from 17.7% in October. Non-food inflation also decelerated to 12.6% Y-o-Y from 15.0% in October. On a monthly basis, inflation declined 0.8% M-o-M thanks to a 1.8% drop in food prices as prices of both fruits and vegetables, which were causing the inflation noise in the past two months, reversed. Prices of vegetables dropped 3.4% M-o-M while those of fruits fell by 8.9% M-o-M, confirming our view that inflation’s escalation in the past two months was driven by temporary, volatile factors. The numbers also point that core inflation, to be released late in the day by CBE, is set to slowdown this month towards 8.5% Y-o-Y from 8.9% in October. 

Mohamed Abu Basha