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02-Aug-2016

Heliopolis Housing FY15/16: Reported numbers likely boosted by another factoring exercise

Heliopolis Housing has announced its financial headline figures for FY15/16. Revenue was EGP658mn (+36.8% Y-o-Y, +24.4% vs. EFGe), while net income was EGP401mn (+95.7% Y-o-Y, +31.8% vs. EFGe). This implies EGP190mn in revenue for 4Q15/16 and EGP120mn in net income, significantly higher than our estimates of EGP61mn and EGP21.5mn, respectively. We had noted that the company’s board had approved a proposal from a local bank to enter a receivable factoring contract worth EGP247mn, for which the company would receive a discounted value of EGP179.4mn. The announcement was made in mid-June. We had highlighted this as a potential upside potential to our numbers, should an agreement was reached before the quarter close, which seems to have been the case, given the strength in the reported numbers.   We believe Heliopolis Housing is on track for the adoption of its new business model. The purpose of the company’s consecutive factoring transactions is to boost liquidity to finalise the ongoing projects, in our view, ahead of further engagement in projects under the new business model. We also highlight the contract signed with SODIC for the co-development of 2.7mn sqm land in El-Sherouk City as a major step towards the adoption of the new model and await the project’s launch, scheduled for early 2017. We reiterate our ‘Buy’ rating on the name, which offers a very wide upside to our FV of EGP74.38/share, despite the heavy 70% discount applied to our calculated NAV. (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros)   Heliopolis Housing: EGP53.56 as of 01 August 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP74.38 per share, MCap: USD671mn, HELI EY / HELI.CA

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