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15-Feb-2016

Etisalat 4Q15 preliminary earnings beat estimate by 45% likely on strong margins and one-offs

4Q15 results highlights: Revenue – AED12,516mn, -4% Y-o-Y, -4% Q-o-Q, -5% vs. EFGe; Net income – AED2,606 mn, +22% Y-o-Y, +34% Q-o-Q, +45% vs. EFGe   Etisalat released preliminary 4Q2015 headline figures, showing net income a significant 45% above our estimate at AED2,606 billion, up 22% Y-o-Y and 34% Q-o-Q, despite revenue being 5% short of our estimate. The company only provided a limited disclosure with some headline figures; hence we are unable to identify what drove the earnings beat. We suspect it was likely driven by: i) a better-than-expected EBITDA margin; and ii) a significant one-off gain, possibly at the royalty level. Moreover, revenue for the quarter fell 4% Y-o-Y and 4% Q-o-Q and the company did not explain this decline. However, the press release highlighted that the +6.6% Y-o-Y growth in FY2015 revenue was driven by a strong local operation (+6% Y-o-Y) in addition to the consolidation of Maroc Telecom operations. We await further details and financial statements for more analysis. We have a Neutral rating on Etisalat as it trades at 16.3x 2016e earnings versus 9.8x for MENA telecoms and 6.8x 2016e EBITDA versus 5.0x for MENA telecoms.   N.B: The company has only provided preliminary figures to comply with the exchange’s regulation of publishing results within 45 days of the end of the quarter; full financial statements will be released on 9 March 2016 after market close. (Omar Maher, Company)

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