Egypt on track for year-end IMF payment, but 32% inflation a worry
Egypt has made a “good start” to its reform programme despite seeking waivers for missing targets in June and a deeper-than-expected currency depreciation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. It should get its USD2bn IMF loan payment after the year-end review, the Fund said, but inflation -- running at just under 32% in August -- remains the key risk for stability. “Stabilization is already gaining a foothold, and we have seen positive trends,” Subir Lall, IMF mission chief for Egypt, Middle East and Central Asia, said in an online briefing. “This is a very ambitious programme. It takes time to work, but it’s well-calibrated and over the course of this economic programme of three years, we should definitely be seeing the payoff.” Lull said Egypt’s inflation is expected to fall to “slightly above” 10% by end of fiscal year 2017/18 and to single digits by 2019. The statement said it had agreed to a request for a waiver after Egypt missed primary fiscal balance and fuel subsidy bill requirements for end-June. The waiver was granted, in part, because of planned strong fiscal adjustments in the next two years. IMF said the country’s current account deficit was seen narrowing to 4.6% of GDP in FY17/18 and to 3.8% in FY18/19. It said it primary fiscal deficit seen at 1.8% of GDP, exceeding the programme target of 1%.
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