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11-Aug-2016

DPR 2Q16: Guidance reduced for 2016 revenue; Official opening announced for 31 Oct

Dubai Parks and Resorts (DPR) has just reported its 2Q16 financial results. As expected, the quarter had zero revenue, with the theme parks opening date confirmed for 31 October. We note that while the annual tickets have already been launched for sale since February, revenue recognition will start upon their use for the first time. Net loss for the quarter was AED41.2mn (EFGe: AED50mn in net loss).   The opening date of 31 October is the first time to be communicated to the market. It implies two months of operations in 2016e. Management has also reduced its guidance for revenue from AED563mn in 2016e (as per its investor presentation dated Feb 2016, attached) to AED297mn, from 0.9mn visits. Our current assumptions incorporate AED368mn from 1.1mn visits.     The following is of note: - 93% of the overall infrastructure construction work was completed, 84% of the overall ride system and 80% of the overall facilities construction work - Three parks, namely, Bollywood Parks, LEGOLAND Dubai, LEGOLAND Water Park (as well as Lapita Hotel and Riverland Dubai) are set to be fully operational on 31 October, while a “significant portion” of motiongate Dubai will kick-off on the same date - The theme park will kick-off with c100 rides - In addition to the domestic sale strategy, the company has signed 24 tour operator cooperation agreements for joint marketing activities in India, the UK and KSA. Also, 30 DMC reseller agreements have been signed and further agreements to drive volumes from other markets including Europe, India, Asia and the GCC are underway - 50 lease proposals have been signed at Riverland Dubai, covering c80% of the total leasable area of 234,000 sqft   We highlight DPR as a play on the growing tourism sector in UAE, with so far, limited local and global competition. That said, we believe the current market price assumes a very optimistic set of assumptions for DPR, following its 3M rally of 34% (DFMGI: +7%). We note that our FV implies 17% downside potential to the current market price, with our numbers assuming 1.1mn visits in 2016e, 6.4mn in 2017e and 7.0mn in 2018e, roughly in line with management’s assumptions in 2017-18e and 22% higher for 2016e.   We believe the recent rally was triggered by speculative flow on expectations regarding the inclusion of the stock in the MSCI EM index in November, which we do not believe is fully backed from a fundamental perspective. (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros)   Dubai Parks and Resorts (DU): AED1.74 as of 10 August, Rating: Neutral, FV: AED1.44/share, MCap: USD3,793mn, DUBAIPAR UH / DUBA.DU

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