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06-Feb-2018

DP World: 4Q17's throughput volumes impressively sustained at elevated levels; slightly ahead of estimates

DP World (DPW) reported its throughput volumes for 2017, showing a robust and impressive level of activity for the year, with total gross volumes coming in at 70.1mn TEUs (+10.1% Y-o-Y), while consolidated volumes reached c36.5mn TEUs (+25% Y-o-Y). In 4Q17 alone, gross volumes came in at 17.8mn TEUs (+10.3% Y-o-Y, -2.6% Q-o-Q), while consolidated volumes reached 9.2mn TEUs (+26.3% Y-o-Y, -1.8% Q-o-Q). Consolidated volumes for the quarter actually came in slightly ahead of our conservative 9.0mn TEU estimate by 2.4%. 
 
On a like-for-like basis, 2017's volume growth story continued to play out well for DPW as it boasted a 9.7% Y-o-Y growth, ahead of the Drewry Maritime's global container throughput growth estimate of 6% for 2017. 
 
Our take on the throughput announcement: Overall, a generally positive story that undertones DPW's diverse global reach in the container space, while also indicating that the UAE's throughput activity is actually sustainable at current levels. Volumes actually were ahead of our estimates, backed primarily by: i) the EMEA region’s superb 24% Y-o-Y growth profile; while ii) the UAE's impressive volume stability did not disappoint (-0.2% vs. EFGe) and maintained its elevated levels of c3.8mn TEUs (+2.3% Y-o-Y, -1.7% Q-o-Q). The ban on Qatar, while negative for regional volumes, has been subdued slightly, given DPW's massive geographical reach and the recent uptick in global trade. 
 
We will be reviewing our numbers post the release of the company's full year results and the recent rally in the share price. We have a Buy on DPW. 

Ahmed Hazem Maher
 
DP World (DU): USD26.50 as of 5 Feb. 2018, Rating: Buy, TP: USD27.50/share, MCap: USD21,995mn, DPW DU/DPW.DI

 

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