CBE Governor says not time to float pound; devaluation depends on timing
Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor said on Wednesday that the time was not right to float the Egyptian pound, but he left the door open to a possible devaluation. "It is not possible to discuss the flotation of the pound now ... but a devaluation depends on what the bank sees at the appropriate time," Tarek Amer said in comments carried by the state news agency MENA, following a meeting with members of Parliament. Amer also stressed the comprehensive nature of Egypt’s reform programme, targeting tax systems and general business environment, in addition to monetary reforms, adding that the reform plan includes offering some state assets to sale through the stock exchange. Meanwhile, the EGP continued to slide against the USD in the parallel market hitting new lows. Five black market traders said the pound had weakened to below EGP11.75 to the dollar on the black market; it was trading at close to EGP11 before Amer's 3 July comments. We see the Governor’s comments, especially the emphasis on a comprehensive reform, as further feeding our view about a prospective IMF deal. We maintain our view that a devaluation in the short term, without a build-up of reserves and a change towards a flexible exchange rate regime, would provide the economy with a few benefits and would not necessarily help bridge the country’s funding gap. We see a much-needed, structural EGP adjustment only likely to take place in a context of an IMF programme, which will be necessary to provide the CBE with needed liquidity to stabilise the market and corner the parallel market. (Reuters, Mohamed Abu Basha)
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