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07-Nov-2016

CAE earnings beat in 3Q16, partly on strong net interest income

Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) issued a press release yesterday, stating that its 3Q16 net income stood at EGP326mn, an increase of 21% Y-o-Y and 4% Q-o-Q, coming in 7% ahead of our estimate of EGP305mn. CAE has not yet released a detailed income statement, but the earnings beat seems to be partly driven by strong net interest income, which increased 33% Y-o-Y and 13% Q-o-Q, exceeding our estimate by 11%. Net interest income has been a key area of positive surprises during 2016 for Credit Agricole Egypt, with the net interest spread up by c50bps up between December 2015 and June 2016. Pre-tax income in 3Q16 rose 21% Y-o-Y and 2% Q-o-Q, 4% ahead of our estimate.   Growth in loans (on a gross basis) picked up to 3% Q-o-Q (6% Y-o-Y and 5% YTD) in 3Q16, compared to 0% Q-o-Q growth in 2Q16. Growth in customer deposits was strong this quarter, up 9% Q-o-Q and 10% Y-o-Y. Growth in deposits for CAE had been slow during 2016 and has been consistently slower than the system in the past two-three years as CAE, unlike other Egypt banks, has a more conservative approach, in terms of increasing asset exposure to the Egypt sovereign via T-Bills and T-Bonds. (Company disclosure, Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, Rajae Aadel)   Credit Agricole: EGP25.95 as of 06 November 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: EGP26.66 per share, MCap: USD504mn, CIEB EY / CIEB.CA

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