CAE 4Q16 earnings beat on higher-than-expected net interest income
Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) issued a press release yesterday, stating that its 4Q16 net income had reached EGP397mn, a strong increase of 37% Y-o-Y and 22% Q-o-Q, beating our estimate of EGP314mn by 27%. The earnings beat appears to be driven mostly by higher-than-expected net interest income, up 50% Y-o-Y, 19% Q-o-Q and 22% ahead of our forecast. Net interest income has been an area of positive surprises throughout 2016, mainly because of strong expansion in spreads. Pre-tax income in 4Q16 surged 64% Y-o-Y and 25% Q-o-Q, coming in 24% above our estimate. Gross loan growth was strong at 28% Q-o-Q (32% Y-o-Y) in 4Q16, partly fueled by the revaluation of USD-denominated loans (22% of the total loan book as of Sep. 2016) at a higher EGP/USD rate. Customer deposit growth was also strong at 29% Q-o-Q (47% Y-o-Y) (USD deposits accounted for 26% of total deposits as of Sept 2016). FY16 net income stood at EGP1,354mn, up 30% Y-o-Y and exceeding our forecast of EGP1,270mn by 7%. (Company disclosure, Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, Rajae Aadel) Credit Agricole: EGP38.97 as of 5 Feb. 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: EGP31.44/share, MCap: USD658mn, CIEB EY/CIEB.CA
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