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21-Feb-2017

Aramex: Robust 4Q16 earnings growth on margin, FX gain - results details

Aramex published its full financials for 2016 yesterday. Impressive 4Q16 growth in earnings to AED132mn (+129% Y-o-Y, 40% ahead of our estimate) was driven by: i) higher EBITDA margin of 14.6% (from 9.3% in 4Q15, +2.5pp vs. estimate) on higher international express and freight forwarding gross margins that offset lower domestic express margin, as well as lower SG&A expenses, as 4Q15 was affected by one-off expense (related to employee incentive scheme); and ii) FX gain (AED13mn for the full year, most of it is likely reported in 4Q16).   The top-line grew a solid 18% Y-o-Y to AED1.16bn, driven by: i) strong growth in international express (+30%) on cross-border e-commerce (Asia, Europe, US in particular); ii) Fastway acquisition that affected domestic express revenue positively (+30%); iii) consolidation of Egypt’s logistics operation that fueled 29% growth in logistics revenue. Freight forwarding revenue continued to decline (-9%), on lower selling rates. EBITDA came in at AED169mn, 19% ahead of estimate.   FY16 dividend: The BoD is proposing AED0.16 DPS, 7% higher Y-o-Y and vs. our estimate. It implies a 55% payout and 3.6% yield. (Company disclosure, Wafaa Baddour)   Aramex (DU): AED4.40 as of 20 Feb. 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: AED4.45/share, MCap: USD1,755mn, ARMX UH/ARMX.DU 

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