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English news

03-Feb-2016

Aramex 4Q2015 recurring earnings up16%, moderately ahead of estimate; reported earnings hit by one-off provision

Aramex reported 16% Y-o-Y growth in 4Q2015 recurring earnings to AED104 million, coming in 7% ahead of our estimate on better-than-expected margins. Reported earnings fell 36% to AED57.6 million due to the booking of a one-off provision to account for an employees’ incentive scheme in order to retain and reward talented and senior executives, in line with international best practices, according to Aramex’s press release. Revenue grew 5% Y-o-Y to AED1,003 million in 4Q2015, broadly in line with our estimate (+1%). Excluding currency fluctuations impact, revenue growth reaches 8.4% Y-o-Y. Reported revenue growth in the fourth quarter was driven largely by a 14% increase in international express on robust e-commerce performance. Domestic express inched up only 4% due to currency devaluations; growth stands at 12% on a normalised basis. Logistics and freight revenues eased 2% and 5%, respectively. Despite growth in volumes, freight revenue was affected by lower selling rates driven by lower oil prices and global currencies fluctuations. FY2015 recurring earnings increased 12% to AED358 million, broadly in line with management guidance of a c10% increase, while reported earnings inched down 2% to AEDAED311 million, affected by the one-off provision. Revenue for the full year increased 5% to AED3,837 million. Exposure to major currency fluctuations, primarily the Euro, South African Rand and Australian Dollar, had a 4.4% negative impact on 2015 revenue; excluding this impact 2015 revenue growth reaches 9.4%.   Management is closely monitoring oil prices and currencies, but remain optimistic on the outlook for 2016, emphasising importance of acquisitions during the year; recent acquisition of Fastway’s operations in New Zealand and Australia as well as future acquisitions. (Company press release, Wafaa Baddour)   Aramex: AED2.95 as of 02 February 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: AED4.20 per share, MCap: USD1,177 million, ARMX UH / ARMX.DU

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