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02-Aug-2016

Aramex 2Q16 earnings grow 36% on one-off gain; operationally flat on lower margins

Aramex released its full financials yesterday, reporting 2Q16 net profit of AED125.7mn,36% higher Y-o-Y, boosted by AED41.6mn one-off gain related to the fair value adjustment of Aramex Marsheq for Logistics Services in Egypt. Recurring earnings softened 9% Y-o-Y to AED84.1mn on lower margins, and were 21% below our estimate. The company deconsolidated Mail Call in 1H16 and 1H15 numbers were restated to reflect this, ahead of its sale that is expected to take place in 3Q16. Revenue grew 17% Y-o-Y to AED1,105mn as expected, boosted by sustained strong growth in international express (18% Y-o-Y) and contribution from the recently acquired Fastway Couriers (during the second half of January 2016) and consolidation of Aramex Mashreq. Domestic revenue fell slightly 4% Y-o-Y on a like-for-like basis (ex-Fastway), while freight forwarding and logistics (LFL, ex-Aramex Mashreq) were broadly flat. EBITDA was flat Y-o-Y at AED135mn (14% below our estimate) as a result of a 2.1pp contraction in the EBITDA margin to 12.2%. Lower margin may have partly come from newly consolidated operations and seasonality (due to the shift of Ramadan that affects business and likely its sales mix) – we await management comment. Additionally, 2Q15 showed one of the highest margin historically. (Company financials, Wafaa Baddour)   Aramex: AED4.1 as of 01 August 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: AED4.20 per share, MCap: USD1,636mn, ARMX UH / ARMX.DU

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