23-Jan-2017
AMOC first glance: Exceptional results in 2Q16/17 as floatation trickles down through earnings; ahead of EFGe
Net income: EGP461mn, +5.7x Y-o-Y, +5.4x Q-o-Q, +36% vs. EFGe Revenue: EGP2.0bn, +121% Y-o-Y, +64% Q-o-Q, +5% vs. EFGe Gross profit: EGP326mn +183% Y-o-Y, +266% Q-o-Q, +29% vs. EFGe Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (AMOC) released its 2Q16/17 financial highlights, showing earnings of EGP461mn, reflecting exceptional growth 5.4x Q-o-Q and 5.7x Y-o-Y. The phenomenal results were also 36% ahead of our estimates for the quarter of EGP339mn. Operationally, gross profit came in at EGP326mn, as margins expanded considerably to 16.2% from 5.8% in 1Q16/17 and vs. EFGe of 13.3%. We had already been assuming an expansion in margins during 2Q16/17, driven by the positive impact of i) higher average crude prices during 2Q16/17; as well as ii) the positive impact of EGP flotation. While full financial results have not yet been released, we think that the beat on the GP level was driven mainly by lower-than-expected costs/tonne, which was likely a factor of low cost inventory with AMOC typically holding two-three weeks on hand. We also note that FX gains have played a major role in the company's bottom-line results, as AMOC typically holds a healthy dollar cash balance (we estimate FX gains came in at cEGP210mn). Our take on the phenomenal results: We think that the exceptional set of results is mainly a reflection of the EGP flotation trickling down through the company's operations, as AMOC's prices and costs are linked directly to international benchmarks. While earnings have multiplied, we think that this quarter will likely be a one-off in terms of bottom-line profitability, as we do not expect a repeat of such a high level of FX gains. This is driven mainly by our view that the EGP will not likely witness such a massive move in the coming period. Nevertheless, a weaker EGP bodes well for the company's EGP-based profitability, and the company will continue to book massive Y-o-Y growth in the coming quarters. Overall, we will be reviewing our short-term estimates to reflect upside risks materialising in the form of i) recent hike in oil prices (post OPEC's decision to cut production); as well as ii) higher-than-expected EGP rates holding at such high levels till now. AMOC currently trades at a PE multiple of 9.3x in 2017e. (Company disclosure, Ahmed Hazem Maher) AMOC: EGP79.29 as of 22 January 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: EGP65.00 per share, MCap: USD363mn, AMOC EY / AMOC.CA