09-Nov-2016
Aldar 3Q16: Good set of results with strong off-plan sales, decent margins
Revenue – AED1.9bn, +61% Y-o-Y, +12% Q-o-Q, -0.7% vs. EFGe Net Income – AED748mn, +18% Y-o-Y, +14% Q-o-Q, +9.6% vs. EFGe Contracted sales – AED1.0bn Aldar Properties (Aldar) reported a decent set of results, AED1.0bn booked in off-plan sales in 3Q16, bringing the total in 9M16 to AED2.9bn. Reported numbers were strong, with revenue showing 61% rise in 3Q16 and 40% in 9M16, driven by the property development segment. Profitability margins were robust in 3Q16 (GPM: 46.5%) supported by strong GPM across the development (84%) and investment portfolio (81%), despite the weak revenue growth at the latter. Occupancy rates across Aldar’s residential and retail portfolio lost a few points sequentially, but continued to be strong, above the 95% mark. Performance of Aldar’s hotel portfolio showed further weakness. Main positives Robust contracted sales of AED1bn in 3Q16, driven by sales at Yas Acres and Mayan, which brings total off-plan sales to cAED2.9bn in 9M16 Revenue met our estimate, coming in at AED1.9bn (+61.4% Y-o-Y, +11.9% Q-o-Q). 9M16 was AED4.8bn (+39.5% Y-o-Y) Strong growth in revenue from property development and sales segment, coming in at AED981mn in 3Q16 (+331% Y-o-Y, +25% Q-o-Q); this was driven by the recording of AED900mn land transaction in Raha Beach, driving up the contribution of the segment to revenue to 52% (3Q15: 19%, 2Q16: 46%) Strong blended gross profit margin, averaging 46.5% in 3Q16 (-4bps Y-o-Y, +567bps Q-o-Q) and 43.9% in 9M16 (-349bps Y-o-Y) Gross Profit Margin (GPM) on investment portfolio maintained above 80% mark, averaging 81% (3Q15: 77%, 2Q16: 85%). Net income came with a 9.6% beat, totaling AED748mn (+17.9% Y-o-Y, +13.8% Q-o-Q). Net income in 9M16 was AED2.1bn (+14.0% Y-o-Y) Main negatives Occupancy rates for the investment portfolio showing slight weakness in 3Q16, with Yas Mall occupancy rate at 96% (2Q16: 98%), residential portfolio: 95% (3Q15: 99%, 2Q16: 96%), office: 95% (3Q15: 92%, 2Q16: 95%) and hotels (in 9M16): 76% (9M15: 79%) Humble growth in revenue from investment properties, +5.1% Y-o-Y and +0.3% Q-o-Q in 3Q16 and 7.7% Y-o-Y in 9M16 Lower revenue from the hospitality and leisure segment, totaling AED107mn in 3Q16 (-10.4% Y-o-Y, -4.1% Q-o-Q) and AED365mn in 9M16 (-13.3% Y-o-Y), on lower occupancy rates for hotels. GPM for the segment was weak, at 6% (3Q15 and 2Q16: 9%) Higher fair value losses reported in 3Q16 on investment portfolio, amounting to AED35.2mn (3Q15: AED29.0mn, 2Q16: AED29.9mn) and AED104.7mn in 9M16 (9M15: AED80.3mn). (Mai Attia, Sara Boutros, company) Aldar Properties (AD): AED2.60 as of 6 Nov 2016, Rating: Buy, FV: AED3.46 per share, MCap: USD5,570mn, ALDAR UH / ALDR.AD