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14-Apr-2016

Albilad 1Q2016 first glance: Strong revenue growth offset by surge in provisions

Bank Albilad reported 1Q2016 net income of SAR175 million, 15% lower Q-o-Q, and below our forecast of SAR206 million.   Main positives: i) Improvement in spreads (+6bps Q-o-Q); ii) Loan growth (+9% Q-o-Q); iii) Non-interest income (+6% Q-o-Q)   Main negatives: Higher provisioning costs (est. cost of risk of 88bps)   Our take on the results: While revenue growth surprised positively on better spreads and stronger non-interest income, earnings were dented by higher provisions. We estimate Albilad’s annualised cost of risk jumped to c88bps, an almost 4x increase Q-o-Q. Loan growth at 9% Q-o-Q was strongly ahead of our estimates; however, rising LDR (85% in 1Q2016) could put pressure on the bank to raise deposits, which should dent spreads in the coming quarters. (Earnings release, Murad Ansari)   Bank Albilad: SAR20.95 as of 13 April 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: SAR20.00 per share, MCap: USD3,352 million, ALBI AB / 1140.SE

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