19-Jan-2017
Al Othaim 4Q16 first glance: impressive revenue growth; earnings up only 6% Y-o-Y despite operational beat on below-EBIT items
Reported net income: SAR94.5mn, +6% Y-o-Y, +158% Q-o-Q, +0% vs. EFGe Sales revenue: SAR1,928.2mn, +24% Y-o-Y, +22% Q-o-Q, +5% vs. EFGe Gross profit: SAR372.6mn, +18% Y-o-Y, +32% Q-o-Q, -3% vs. EFGe Operating profit: SAR102.3mn, +20% Y-o-Y, +243% Q-o-Q, +10% vs. EFGe Al Othaim Markets reported 4Q16 KPIs with earnings up 6% Y-o-Y and in line with our estimate despite an operational beat due to some below-the-line items especially higher zakat & taxes as per the company’s disclosure. Income of associates (mainly Al Othaim Malls) also could have been weak. Top-line growth was the strongest since 2Q14 (which was boosted by Ramadan timing differences) at 24% Y-o-Y (+5% vs. EFGe) driven by new supermarket openings and continued strong LFL sales growth (likely in double-digits this quarter). Gross margin declined c1.1pp Y-o-Y to 19.3% (EFGe: 21%), despite the company likely booking higher progressive rebates, due to some aggressive market-wide promotional activity in the quarter (triggered by number-one player Panda) that could partly explain the strong top-line outcome. Gross profit was up 18% Y-o-Y and broadly in line with our estimate (-3%). EBIT margin, however, only eased c20bps to 5.3% (EFGe: 5.1%) likely on slower SG&A costs growth (the main negative surprise for the past few quarters due to higher staff as well as transport & utilities costs) and/or higher net rental income. Operating profit was thus up 20% Y-o-Y and 10% above our estimate. Overall, a quite solid results set and we reiterate our view on Al Othaim as one of our top picks in the Saudi consumer space due to its consistent ability to report post positive LFL sales growth. (Company disclosure, Hatem Alaa, CFA, Nada Amin) Al Othaim: SAR95.58 as of 18 January 2017, Rating: Buy, TP: SAR109.00 per share, MCap: USD1,147mn, AOTHAIM AB / 4001.SE