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06-Jan-2016

Advanced Petrochemicals 4Q2015 First Glance: Profitability plunges on spread compression, as expected

Net income – SAR146mn (-27% Y-o-Y and -38% Q-o-Q) -2% vs EFGe Gross profit – SAR161mn (-31% Y-o-Y and -35% Q-o-Q) -3% vs EFGe Operating income – SAR148mn (-32% Y-o-Y and -38% Q-o-Q) -5% vs EFGe   Advanced Petrochemical Company (Advanced) just reported its 4Q2015 results with a 38% Q-o-Q drop (-27% Y-o-Y) in earnings on the back of the large compression in the PP-naphtha spread. Spreads fell by c23% on average during the quarter as PP prices saw a larger correction than naphtha prices. PP prices have been under pressure on the back of new supply coming from China as well as relatively muted demand levels during the quarter. Full financials are not yet available, but we estimate that revenue fell 16% Q-o-Q to SAR531 million. Earnings were broadly in line with our expectations, with operating income showing the widest variance (-5%) on higher-than-expected S,G&A expenses, possibly due to end of year bonuses. While this was a generally weak quarter for Advanced, which did not come as a surprise and we believe the weak operating environment has more than been priced in at these levels. We maintain our Buy rating on Advanced and believe the current levels are a good entry point, especially as the company is offering an attractive yield of c8.5%. (Company disclosure, Yousef Husseini)  

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